Dealing with uncertainty

We always hear that we live in uncertain times.

Especially after the AI developments of the past few years, many people (companies and employees alike) have started to worry about what the future holds, their jobs and their roles in society at large.

The truth is that uncertainty about the future has always been there.

For most of human history, physical uncertainty dominated every decision (from being killed by a wild animal to earth exploration and world wars).

Only lately, it has mostly shifted to financial and societal uncertainty.

Why does it always feel special?

Every generation thinks they are special. On top of that, if you look at the past we can see things turned out to be not so bad compared to what people feared.

For example, not long ago, most people on earth were farmers and when the tractor was invented, they were scared of losing their jobs and livelihood. It turned out that people reinvented themselves and found new ways to add value to society.

In 1999, people feared that on December 31, the world would end because of the Millennium Bug, as computers would not know how to go into 2000 and crash.
As we both know, that did not happen and the world moved on.

Humans don’t deal well with uncertainty

Here are a few unhealthy ways to cope with it:

• Paralysis: stop doing things and hope the problem goes away

• Overanalysis: instead of making a decision, get as much data as possible even if more information does not help at all. It feels like justified procrastination while it’s simply fear

• Outsourcing: asking “experts” what to do. The truth is that they don’t know either. But it’s comforting to blame them if things go wrong

• Herding: following the crowd. “If most people are doing X, I should do it too. They must know something I don’t”

• Faith: hoping for a divine intervention that will show us the way

Maybe there are more ways but these are the ones I’ve been guilty of at some point in my life (and I still fall for some).

Dealing with uncertainty

The first thing you can do is to write down all the risks that you are worried about and categorize them into groups:

Information uncertainty

For example, you don’t know what it means to work at X role for Y type of company. You don’t know which skills are needed for a position. You are unsure about how much it costs to live in a new city and what salary you should ask for.

This can be mitigated by collecting more data, speaking with people in those positions and doing more research.

Economic/macro uncertainty

You are worried that companies are not hiring during a crisis. You fear that investments are drying out. You are afraid of incoming policy changes or a weak economy.

On the macro side, you might fear that your profession (or your entire field) will be disrupted by large trends like the rise of new emerging technology, a scientific breakthrough that makes decades of work obsolete or new automation processes.

Micro uncertainty

You might have doubts about your current (or future) company. Maybe you don’t believe a leader/executive and fear that person is hiding their real incentives. Or in the academic world, you might be uncertain about a professor who looks more interested in accolades than research.

Micro can be mitigated by asking the right questions. Macro cannot.

Mitigating career uncertainty: what not to do

One of the first instincts to lower uncertainty is to put ourselves in the most comfortable career position: a full-time job in a large company that pays well and protects us from what is happening in the world.

Although this might feel like avoiding uncertainty, it’s not.

Even large companies once considered a “safe haven”, have laid off hundreds of thousands of employees.

In other words, joining a large company when you fear uncertainty is like closing your eyes and praying that everything will be okay, hoping the mighty executives don’t cut your department.

But if you think this only happens in large companies, you’d be wrong.

The same is true in academia where most researchers depend on scholarships and grants that come and go at the whim of government agencies.

What about startups? Are they the solution then?

Not at all. While large companies and academia might need time to make those changes, startups can disappear in the blink of an eye. If you think that working in a cutting-edge company will make uncertainty go away because you are the disruptor, think again.

What about government jobs?

Even the Prime Minister only has stability until the next election…

What to do

#1 - Accept uncertainty and make a decision anyway

Even if you lack clarity (everybody does), embracing a situation’s risks makes you more prepared for uncertainty and more resilient when things change. You’ll stop being constantly worried about what could go wrong because it’s already part of your assessment.

How can we try to identify some of the risks beforehand?

By asking the right questions:

#2 - Be willing to be wrong

Accepting uncertainty means knowing you are going to be wrong because the world is unpredictable.

The goal should be to make the best decisions with the information we have.

But even great decisions can lead to terrible outcomes so expecting to be right every time is a fool’s errand. Being wrong most of the time and right only a few times might be all you need.

→ Check out a previous article on how to stop making poor decisions

The other side of uncertainty

Instead of fearing uncertainty, we should be grateful it’s there.

In a world without uncertainty, every job in every company becomes predictable and people ultimately stop being useful.

Paradoxically, the more uncertain your tasks are designed to be, the more secure your future is.

Why? Because it means you are adding something to the mix that is not trivial. You’re contributing to solving a problem by going through uncertain paths with your unique perspectives and opinions. And that’s always going to be valuable.

If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who feels uncertain about the future.

This week's top scientific reads

1. A New Body-Brain Circuit (Nature)

2. A Trojan Horse for Obesity (Nature)

3. The Mystery of Monogamy (Nature)

4. Game-Changing Blood Test for Early Stroke Detection (Stroke)

5. New Drug Saves Life: 1st Use for Rare Blood Disease (NEJM)

Read the highlights of these articles here.

Latest European funding rounds in health & bio

• Axmed raised €1.8M for its medicines marketplace that improves healthcare procurement in emerging markets 🇨🇭

• Limula raised €6.3M for their manufacturing solution that produces personalised cancer treatments on demand and at scale 🇨🇭

• Oxford Endovascular closed a €9.4 Series A to develop a flow diverter that treats aneurysms 🇬🇧

• May Health raised €23M for their less invasive medical device against infertility caused by polycystic ovary syndrome 🇫🇷

• Hephaistos Pharma raised €4.5M for immuno-oncology therapies 🇫🇷

• Nanordica Medical raised €1.8M for their product based on nanotechnology to prevent infection and promote wound closure 🇪🇪

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